‘End of fossil age’ has begun, analysts say

“Very soon wind and solar will push the world into a new era, an era of falling fossil generation and therefore of falling power sector emissions". [Shutterstock / Engineer studio]

2023 will mark the beginning of the decline in fossil fuels, following the peak of global electricity emissions in 2022, according to a new report released on Wednesday (12 April) by energy think-tank Ember. 

“In this decisive decade for the climate, it is the beginning of the end of the fossil age. We are entering the clean power era,” said the lead author of the study Małgorzata Wiatros-Motyka.

Ember’s Global Electricity Review analysed electricity data from 78 countries representing 93% of global electricity demand. The report found that in 2022, global electricity generation was the cleanest ever, with a record growth in wind and solar power, which accounted for 12% of global power generation.

Renewables and nuclear combined accounted for 39% of global electricity generation, with solar power being the fastest-growing source with a 24% increase.

Ember highlighted the role of wind and solar power in pushing the world into a new era of clean energy and declining power sector emissions, despite rising emissions in 2022 caused by the war in Ukraine and falling supplies of cheap Russian gas.

“Although it’s unfortunate that fossil electricity generation hit an all-time high in 2022, you can see that wind and solar are already delivering to reduce emissions,” said Dave Jones, head of data insights at Ember. 

“Very soon wind and solar will push the world into a new era, an era of falling fossil generation and therefore of falling power sector emissions,” he added. 

The report suggests that wind and solar power can provide up to 75% of the increase in clean power from now to 2050, thanks to their lower cost compared to fossil fuels.

EU aligned with Paris Agreement goal

In Europe, the transition to wind and solar power is happening faster than the global average, with wind and solar accounting for 22% of electricity production in 2022, up from just 13% in 2015, while globally the share of wind and solar increased from 4.6% to 12.1% in the same period, the report shows.

Yet, power sector emissions in the EU saw an increase of 2.8% last year compared to 2021. This was mostly due to a fall in nuclear generation – driven by maintenance in France and plant closures in Germany – as well as a fall in hydropower generation caused by droughts, that were partially replaced by coal and gas.

But the EU stayed the course and even decided to accelerate its green transition in response to the Russian military aggression in Ukraine, setting new ambitious targets for renewable energy deployment for 2030.

“2022 will be remembered as a turning point in the energy transition. Due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the global energy crisis, many governments have rethought their reliance on fossil fuels,” Jones said. 

To achieve a net zero emissions power sector by 2035, the least-cost pathway would see the EU generate 70-80% of electricity from wind and solar, and less than 5% from gas power, modelling by Ember finds. 

The report estimates that 2023 will see a record decline in fossil fuels in the EU. By 2030, just 17% of EU electricity will come from fossil fuels, while the majority of the region will have phased out coal, according to national plans.

“The EU power sector is in a good position to achieve a trajectory aligned with 1.5C,” the report says. 

The EU ‘cannot afford complacency’

But while Europe has been at the forefront of the renewable revolution, it has now been overtaken by Oceania while North America and Asia are catching up fast, the study shows. 

“The EU started the race to renewables early but, as the world accelerates, it cannot afford complacency,” said Ember Europe programme lead Sarah Brown. 

“Europe had an extremely challenging year in 2022 but should now seize the opportunity to double down on renewables deployment and remain at the forefront of the global transition to a clean and prosperous economy,” she added.